Comparison of solar modules before and after export

Will China's solar PV module capacity exceed global demand in 2024?

China’s solar PV module capacity far exceeded global demand in 2024, surpassing our projections for total global installations (1,000GW) even in 2030.142 Chinese manufacturers are continuing to expand manufacturing even despite overcapacity. This will likely lead to continued cost deflation and market consolidation of lower-tier suppliers.

How has global solar PV manufacturing capacity changed over the last decade?

Global solar PV manufacturing capacity has increasingly moved from Europe, Japan and the United States to China over the last decade. China has invested over USD 50 billion in new PV supply capacity – ten times more than Europe − and created more than 300 000 manufacturing jobs across the solar PV value chain since 2011.

Why is solar PV causing a global cost deflation?

This disruption is driven by the scale of China's strategic investment into solar PV technology deployment and manufacturing, resulting in significant ongoing cost deflation globally. Solar PV is increasingly undermining the business case for fossil fuel extraction and consumption.

Why is solar PV becoming more competitive with new thermal generation?

Solar PV is now competitive with new thermal generation across an increasing number of markets globally due to significant reductions in capital expenditure, primarily driven by increasing module efficiencies and technological innovation.